Risk of Ruin Calculator
Even a profitable strategy can blow up if you bet too big. Enter your win rate, reward-to-risk, and risk per trade to estimate the chance of hitting a ruinous drawdown — simulated over thousands of trade sequences.
Estimated risk of ruin
0.0%
FAQ
What is risk of ruin?
The probability that a string of losses drives your account down to a level you define as 'ruin' (e.g. a 50% drawdown) before your edge plays out.
How do I lower it?
Risk less per trade, raise your win rate, or improve your reward-to-risk. Cutting risk per trade is usually the fastest lever.
Is this exact?
It's a Monte-Carlo estimate assuming fixed-fractional sizing and independent trades — a planning guide, not a guarantee.